A small force like the one caused by a butterfly wings movement may cause huge effects somehow somewhere in the world, this is line with the “Chaos Theory”

Recycling is becoming crucial for our life, especially with the fast depletion of many of the earth’s natural resources. This applies, not only to plastics but to other important resources such as Aluminium, glass, wood etc…

After oil, plastic will literally disappear, apart from little bioplastics produced plus the recycled plastic, which both, in my views will be a tiny percentage of what humanity needs at the time. Many of us will salute this, bearing in mind, the pollution brought to earth, since we started using plastics.

Unfortunately the answer is not that simple. As per my research, summarized in my book; The Last Drop, Humankind Post Oil & Gas (https://lnkd.in/eYgNCmB), sustaining commercial aviation after oil is not going to be easy.

After oil in the 19th century, humans’ living became easier, with the invention of machines, electricity, cars etc. Energy of one barrel is equal to work by 12 men in one year.

The Earth Carrying Capacity (ECC) is a Fn of; population and activity level (way of living, industry, pollution, etc.), affecting earth’s balance and its carrying capacity

Production planning is important, especially in the Oil & Gas. It drives business, at all levels to meet and improve demand and sales plans. In the 80’s, PPS tools were used, to maximize revenue and reduce cost.

In the 50’s, operations in Oil & Gas, was concentrated in the field, in the 60’s, functions moved to control rooms, using huge panels.

AI is around since the 60’s, however it reached later to ES with limited offerings in the 90’s. We developed AI solutions in ADNOC in the 90’s (Wadi, Oil & Gas Journal, Nov. 25, 1996), using AI-ANN, to estimate, in real time, refined products’ qualities.

PS is one of the oldest industries, started 140 years ago with steam turbines, fired by coal, then new equipment were introduced e.g. gas turbines, nuclear power and renewable energy.

Oil & Gas sector adopted computerised MBDR systems since the 80’s. It started as simple systems, doing flow rates and energy balance around process units & utilities networks e.g. steam, water, energy, etc. including movement and inventories of offsite areas.

Before the Corona virus pandemic, oil consumption estimates for 2021 were estimated at 103 Mbbl/day. Whilst theoretically, consumption should return to normal after the pandemic is over and restrictions are lifted (fly, travel, move, entertain, etc.), it is my belief that these estimates will still not be hit.

When oil is over, in few decades, finding replacement for plastics, will be amongst the three most serious challenges facing humanity who is highly dependent on plastics, including for clothes.

Power generation depends heavily on fossil fuel e.g. gas, coal, liquid fuels and balance from neuclear and renewable energy (RE) e.g. solar, wind.

ANN was invented few decades ago. It emulates human brain using “Association”. In ANN (fig.) nodes represent neurons (each has own model) and connections represent synapses.

For decades, batteries have been essential for us, used in: laptops, mobiles, cars, etc. With the growth in renewable energy on the expense of fossil fuels and the diminishing oil, the role of batteries will grow substantially.

Chaos theory is an interdisciplinary theory, focusing on study of chaos in complex Dynamic Systems where “random states of disorder” are mostly governed by deterministic laws which are difficult to model.

One of the big concerns at O & G is losses in energy & products. I know of sites where losses rise to 7% and more. We all know how much that is worth at a large refinery, gas or chemical plant.

DV is used to ensure data fitness and consistency using checks such as; data type validation, range & accuracy checks, consistency & completeness checks.

Risk is embedded in everything we do. Likewise, it is a big concern in ES, be it maintenance, operations, design, projects, etc.

Cities’ are going to see major changes after oil & gas, why?

When T. Wright invented his law in 1936 in USA, trying to boost aircraft manufacturing, stating;

In earlier article, we discussed prospects of robotics in ES. A recent study by us, revealed that ES falls behind, compared to other sectors w.r.t. clients’ and suppliers’ readiness.

The world’s Electric Vehicles (EV) number is currently small (around 1%). However, the accelerated production of EV will make them soon a substantial percentage of cars on the road, hence need proactive planning and preparation e.g. adequate power generation, distribution and transmission systems, beside EV charge stations.

The Tragedy of Commons theory, defines the situation when individuals over-consume “common unsustainable resource”, for the sake of personal gain and self interest e.g. common fishery resources, common grass lands, harmful air emissions, etc…

I get this question all the time, from fresh graduates and practicing engineers at the energy sector;

Optimization is used in almost every industry and it is epochal in the Energy Sector, who is leading in its application. Production Planning Optimization (see fig.) is an important one, both at corporate and plant level.

Few decades ago, planning a career was easy, thriving on stable, less volatile and steady world, fueled by ample opportunities for fresh graduates and experienced professionals.

Many people, organizations and governments are submitting to the fact that the “fossil fuels era” is fading away, in spite that the world still has big reserves of it.

In my book, “The Last Drop, Humankind Post Oil & Gas”, https://lnkd.in/eYgNCmB, written more than six years ago, I discussed swappable batteries as one of the possibilities to overcome long recharge times of electric cars, so can improve the feasibility of “electric-motors based transportation means”.

The Global Warming threat is real and serious with huge impact on humanity, especially future generations.

Risk is embedded in everything we do or deal with in our life, be it, personal, family, social, business, economic or political.

The past few years have been interesting, full of new experiences and challenges e.g. pandemic, global warming, IR4.0, digital currencies..

If I want to list the three most important global topics in the past few years, I would list; COVID-19, Carbon Capture (CC) and Industry 4.0. No doubt that CC is now a hot topic all around the world, driven by ambitious global target of reducing half the global CO2 emissions by 2030.

The recent development in the world w.r.t. energy shortages, high energy cost, shortage in material, shortage in cars, etc., happening while the world is trying to reduce emissions, has resulted in a situation...

Since late 50’s, when space research, exploration and projects started, there have been tough competition between the super powers to control space.

Miniature Neuclear Reactors (MNR) were invented in the 50’s of the last century, a small modular reactor to generate electricity for small cities and remote areas.

With the strong zeal to reduce emissions, resulting in initiatives and projects to meet and comply with the agreed deadlines

For more than a year, the world have suffered of serious shortage in semiconductors, caused by shutdown of some semiconductors foundries, due to pandemic,...

In a strive to meet the globally set emission targets, few airlines in the world started a new green and sustainability scheme, to reduce emissions...

One of the main characteristics of digital technologies e.g. mobiles, iPads, PCs, is the short life cycle (on average of 2-5 year), which is much shorter than other appliances, gadget or things we use.

In my lecture in 2016, at the “Energy Futures Lab” at Imperial College in UK, which is one of the leading energy research centers in the world, discussing the future after fossil fuels

The first transistor, which is the smallest functional unit in any semiconductor’s integrated circuit (IC), was invented in late 40’s of the last century and was the size of a hand palm.

The end of oil, whether caused by absence of “feasibly available oil & gas reserves”, (expected to end in 4-5 decades, as estimated by several major studies, oil companies and research), or driven by the need to switch to more environment friendly sources

No doubt that the future is EVs, which are growing at a fast pace and foreseen to continue to grow exponentially.

The world has seen waves of promotions for green hydrogen as a green source of energy.

In almost every global event or conference, the 2050 Zero target is mentioned and reasserted.

Sustainability, ecosystem, circular economy, green earth, etc., call it whatever you want, all nice and attractive PR slogans and titles, however achieving them, even partly

There are different ways to look at design & engineering services, right from cost effectiveness to value engineering & design optimisation, QA/QC, and most importantly functional requirements.

VE was invented in the 40’s at GE in USA to improve Manufacturing Methods, using the Value concept as function: Function (f) & Cost, so every item, device, service etc,

Projects go through following main phases (irrespective of form of tendering, contractual & technical issues)

Modern Cities follow good practice in design & planning, though still lack optimization and cost effectiveness. Why?

Risk is embedded in everything we do. Likewise, it is a big concern in ES, be it maintenance, operations, design, projects, etc.

Finding good Solution Architects (SA) is a big challenge, especially in industries, such as Energy, caused by increased complexity in IT & Automation systems, new technologies e.g. IR4.0, Blockchain and the higher demand for data exchange and integration, right from sensory up to enterprise systems

Historically, computing power was centered at the HQ of industrial companies, with focus on enterprise systems. In early days (see Fig.), hardly there was computing power at sites, even at major companies e.g. O & G, Power, etc.

Robust Human & Group Models, if developed properly, will bring huge benefits to HR, marketing, management, projects, negotiation and even in finance & economics.

In the hype of IR4.0 and Digital Transformation technologies, I often receive this question: “how can we ensure that our EPC/mega project is built, ready for IR4.0?”.

The closed loop control (CLC) or the feedback theory, are prominent theories in the system dynamics and industrial worlds.

Managing people goes beyond managing subordinates & extends to others e.g. peers, clients, suppliers, contractors & even bosses.

As per Yerkes-Dodson law and as seen in the fig., human performance goes through several phases; starts initially with low stress-low performance phase, when little effort is put (moving from inactive to moderately active), then starts rising with more effort/stress added, ultimately reaches the optimum stress-performance levels, where it peaks up.

Modelling is successfully used to; control, optimize, predict and troubleshoot problems in industrial sector and other sectors e.g. stock markets.

Project Management (PM) enjoyed major progress in the 70’s and 80’s including computerized procurement, CPM & PERT based project scheduling, EDMS, CAD technology and many others.

Risk is embedded in everything we do. Likewise, it is a big concern in ES, be it maintenance, operations, design, projects, etc.

Imposter Syndrome (IS) is triggered by low confidence and low esteem, contrary to Dunning-Kruger effect (article, 2 months ago) when one suffers of unfounded “over-confidence”.

IR4.0 is important to sustain and grow business, hence can’t be prorogued, plus needs the right approach for cost effective implementation, while meeting business objectives.

Versatility is; “being able to do several skillful tasks, with an acceptable level of performance”, hence, it is not “contrary to specialization” i.e. generalization. Versatile people are multi-tasking, efficient and team players, needed more in today’s vying environment.

APMS prevailed in the past two decades, part of an improved practice at major industries, driven by; Asset Management systems, Maintenance Management systems, Reliability Engineering & Asset Integrity systems.

Blue Ocean Business Strategy is relatively a new strategy for approaching business vis-a-vis conventional approaches (Red Ocean) which target existing markets, products, services, etc.

I always say that what makes a good manager, leader or executive, is ability to make timely and right decisions most of the time (not every time). As you all know, there are myriad courses, techniques, tools, academic courses, etc.

In the coming decade or so, every CEO and executive will be facing unprecedented challenges, due to the imminent and transitory phase, the world is undergoing.

Motivation is a key tool in management, resulting in improved productivity, high morale while it is vitally important for building and leading effective teams.

Being an engineer, not sure if pandemic scientists & doctors welcome my input here, though I am trying to give a different perspective to pandemics’ management, using an engineered approach.

Conjuring the beginning of this pandemic, when most businesses resorted to remote work. Gradually and with the lift of lockdowns and easing out on movements, most organizations either resorted to a kind of hybrid work, while some had the audacity to continue with remote work, and others went back to conventional office. Why?

Digital Transformation projects, are highly technological, so having the right resources, within the project team is critical for their success. The table shows the main expertise needed, against each sector and phase.

Working in a multicultural work environment is an interesting experience, some of us have been through, sometime in their career, especially here in the Middle East.

Digital technology is conquering almost every sector and business in the world. Due to the high budgets involved in projects, more emphasis on this sector is worthwhile (the value of projects executed globally every year is worth trillions of dollars, hence a tiny improvements, translates into tens of billions of dollars, savings every year), by trying to enhance and revolutionize project management & services, using various Digital technologies, such as Big Data Analytics, AI, Robotics, IoT etc.

Viruses like the current Corona virus pandemic have been a major threat to us for centuries. Our life has been dominated by the the virtual world (Internet, computers, Social Media, etc.) for the past few decades and it too also suffers from viruses.

Today with the spread of Corona virus, the world, in most countries, as part of its protection acts and fighting Corona, people are asked to stay home, avoid gatherings, distance themselves from others, reduce or even avoid social and sports events and if infected be quarantined. What does this mean?

In previous blogs, I talked briefly about IR 4.0 framework and its underlying technologies, such as: AI, IoT, Big Data, Mobility and Social Networks.

In any industrial process, setting a set-point higher than it’s process capability will cause what we call, as engineers, “control wind up” or process starvation. This will lead to an unhealthy process.

The Earth Carrying Capacity (ECC) is a Fn of; population and activity level (way of living, industry, pollution, etc.), affecting earth’s balance and its carrying capacity

Before the Corona virus pandemic, oil consumption estimates for 2021 were estimated at 103 Mbbl/day. Whilst theoretically, consumption should return to normal after the pandemic is over and restrictions are lifted (fly, travel, move, entertain, etc.), it is my belief that these estimates will still not be hit.

When I talked, in social media, few months ago, about the SDS Theory, I was focusing on how it can be used in people’s connectivity, influencing, marketing, etc., discussed role of social media (Virtual Society) in accelerating its impact but only on people’s virtual connectivity.

The world is in a race with Corona vaccines testing, struggling with test protocols, time, costs & risks, while people dying all around, made me think of DT as a possible accelerator.

The answer is NO, albeit attempts in some countries e.g. try it for diagnosis using scans’ analysis and using robots for medical deliveries and in nursing. COVID-19 who is trouncing the world, needs innovative AI & BD solutions, which need large amounts of representative and accurate data to yield benefits.

Most countries have been responding to Covid19 pandemic in a reactive rather than pro-active, predictive nor optimized way, which might have been justified and understood, being a new experience for everybody, at this huge scale of pandemic.

Traveling recently in Europe, seeing the level and quality of services at hotels, restaurants, airports, transportation and other public places, made me wonder whether Covid has affected negatively the competency of workers and professionals at different sectors.

Being an engineer, not sure if pandemic scientists & doctors welcome my input here, though I am trying to give a different perspective to pandemics’ management, using an engineered approach.

The risks of digital viruses increased exponentially in the past two decades, due to the proliferation of digital technology and computerization. Cyber crime and threats evolved, posing big challenge to people, businesses, governments and organizations.

Today want to talk about something personal, not energy, not oil & gas and not technology.

Today, we live literally in “social network societies”, the platform for the virtual world. What does this bring with it?

It says; When two people are meeting, there are six people around the table, not only two. How come?Because in reality, each person has three personalities: his real one, the one he is trying to present and the personality seen by the other person.

Social Resonance (SR) is a concept stemming from the natural resonance theory, defined in physics

Virtual society (VS) as explained in earlier blogs, refers to societies of people connected & communicating through internet & social media.

Perfectionism as a feature, sounds nice and likable, though in reality may not be always so. Trying to be perfect in morals & ethics is good, while it is not the case when doing work having budget & time limits.

Chaos theory is an interdisciplinary theory, focusing on study of chaos in complex Dynamic Systems where “random states of disorder” are mostly governed by deterministic laws which are difficult to model.

Entropy (see #Entropy) states that any system in this universe leans towards “disorder”, meaning unpredictability and waste because the universe itself is chaotic.

Modern Cities follow good practice in design & planning, though still lack optimization and cost effectiveness. Why?

Late 90’s, Dunning & Kruger, Psychologists at Yale, published a paper about a kind of “Cognitive Bias”, called “Dunning-Kruger Effect”, about people who overestimate their knowledge.

Polls to gauge mass opinions before elections, referendums and other public events, have been used for decades, relying on proven and accurate techniques.

When two surfaces move against each other, they experience “friction”, a function of surface roughness(R) and hardness(H).

Imposter Syndrome (IS) is triggered by low confidence and low esteem, contrary to Dunning-Kruger effect (article, 2 months ago) when one suffers of unfounded “over-confidence”.

Versatility is; “being able to do several skillful tasks, with an acceptable level of performance”, hence, it is not “contrary to specialization” i.e. generalization.

Amygdala is a centre of emotions, located near the brain base. Scientists believe that Amygdala evolved from the early days of humanity, in response to prevalent animals’ threats at the time..

Job satisfaction is epochal when it comes to deciding on a career path. Every manager, HR officer and recruiter, aim at it, being a key objective, when it comes to recruitment, promotions, career development and motivating employees.

Robust Human & Group Models, if developed properly, will bring huge benefits to HR, marketing, management, projects, negotiation and even in finance & economics.

I am pleased to announce that this week, I have completed teaching a course (remotely) on “Digital Transformation” to a group of professionals from different sectors.

Negativity is bad and nobody wants it, neither in social life nor at work. Negativity is harmful and may have scathing effects on the long term.

The fast changing world, the multi-facet impact of technology, including its impact on society (towards more virtuality) and the foreseen energy transformation impact ...

Achieving is not only limited to work and business, rather to everything we do, whether at work, home, socially, academically, etc.

As per human behavior sociologists and psychologists, changing people’s habits is a challenging task and persuasion plays central role in this process.

Social loafing is the situation when people, working within a group, put less effort versus the effort they put when working alone.

Today want to talk about something personal, not energy, not oil & gas and not technology.

Working in a multicultural work environment is an interesting experience, some of us have been through, sometime in their career, especially here in the Middle East.

Finding good jobs is not easy, especially for fresh graduates and young professionals. Some markets are more competitive than others, similarly some professions and employers.

I spent good part of my life flying, mostly for business. I flew almost to every part on the globe, some trips were short, 30 minutes or so to 20+ hours trips (with stop overs).

Intrinsic Value (ISV) is a function of human morals, intellectual capabilities, education, experience, social contribution, manners, etc.

We are very pleased to start such cooperation in a very advanced and progressive technology area, looking forward to working with Aptagrim Limited, applying AI technology in different sectors in the region, including energy, oil & gas, chemicals, health, transportation, utilities and others.

A big topic which occupied my mind since youth days and still. Our universe is highly balanced, including every process in it, be it biological, industrial, physical, chemical, psychological, social, etc.